I don't want to beat a dead horse, but this year's salmon season has been awful. Sure, there were some bright spots in the sockeye fisheries (Cook Inlet had a great season, Copper River showed up strong early on, and Bristol Bay was better than expected), but pink salmon really dropped the ball this year. The YTD harvest is over 50% below 2022 (the last even year). Also, where are the silvers? Are they late to the party or are they just ghosting us? Their current statewide harvest is also down more than 50% from both this time last year and the five year average. According to SeafoodNews, it could end up being the worst year for salmon since 1988. (Meanwhile, in Russia, fisheries managers have actually increased the harvest projections, with pink salmon accounting for 69% of the harvest so far. Totally unrelated, I'm sure.)
In more depressing news, Southeast trollers will not get a second summer Chinook fishery because sport fishermen in Southeast are projected to exceed their allocation by 14,000 Chinook. As you might imagine, that isn't sitting well with the commercial fleet. The Alaska Trollers Association issued a strongly worded press release.
In better news, the University of Washington Fisheries Research Institute published their preliminary preseason estimates for the 2025 Bristol Bay season, and both harvests and fish sizes are expected to improve next year. The projected run of 49.6 million sockeye is 18% below the 10 year average, but on par with the last two seasons. The harvest projection of 32.4 million is slightly higher than this year's harvest of 31 million but notably higher than the preseason forecast of 25 million. On average, sockeye are expected to weigh in at 5.7 pounds, a 36% increase over this year's historically low 4.2 pound average.
And in permit news, Cook Inlet drift permits are holding steady in the $38,000-$39,000 range. Federal waters in Cook Inlet closed to salmon fishing on August 15. Our most recent Bristol Bay drift permit sold for $121,500, but the low hanging fruit might be gone - our highest offer is currently $125,000, with no takers yet. Bristol Bay setnet permits have come down to $51,400 compared to the last sale at $60,000. Permit activity is increasing as the summer season comes to an end, check out new listings, prices, and offers below.
The quota market is still pretty darn slow. A sale in July at $27.00 marked the lowest price we’ve seen for 3A unblocked this year and we have 3ACU listed as low as $28.50. Fished 2C unblocked quota sold at $43.00. Dock prices in Homer slipped down into the $5.00-$6.00 range earlier this month, with deliveries last week going for $5.50/$5.75/$6.00. And, following a trend we’re seeing in other ports, the price for 60 ups was the same as 10-20 at $5.50. They've popped back up over the $6.00 mark now, with a delivery last week fetching $6.25 straight.
Overall, those aren't bad prices, but looking at fish tickets from 2014, the ex-vessel prices for halibut were in the $6.00 to $7.00 range. With the increased costs of food, fuel, ice, bait, insurance, and moorage, coupled with lower catch limits, the bottom line for halibut fishermen is considerably worse than it was ten years ago. And, with halibut getting harder to find, fishermen are running more gear to get their quota caught. So, it's not great.
Still no interest in black cod quota and no recent dock prices to report. (If you find these dock prices useful, and you’re making a delivery or have delivered recently, please let us know what you got paid!)
The statewide halibut TAC is 53% harvested, with 2C at 65%, 3A at 61%, 3B at 53%, 4A at 35%, 4B at 15%, and 4C/D at 19%. The statewide sablefish TAC is 38% landed, with AI still at 3%, BS at 19%, CG at 49%, SE at 53%, WG at 33% and WY at 70%.
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